Ky. Republicans should stick with Fletcher in 2007 By David Gambrel, Contributing Columnist, Lexington Herald-Leader I have had a keen interest in politics ever since 1968, when I debated my fellow second-graders whether Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey or George Wallace would make the best president. In 1972 I watched both the Democratic and Republican conventions from gavel to gavel. I remember Robert Gable's truth bell in the 1975 gubernatorial election, Mitch McConnell's bloodhounds in the 1984 Senate campaign, George H.W. Bush's promise to not raise taxes in 1988, former Gov. John Y. Brown Jr.'s overconfidence in the 1987 primary and, until recently the most incredible of all, presidential candidate Walter Mondale's promise to raise taxes in 1984. Recent events in Kentucky have eclipsed Mondale's ill-advised promise. For prominent Kentucky Republicans to publicly part company with Gov. Ernie Fletcher defies political logic. Given that I am a Democrat, I am under no delusions that the Republicans want or will take any advice from me. But it's kind of like the time when I was 8 and saw a woman with blue hair. No matter how hard I tried to restrain myself, I just couldn't help blurting out, "Look, Mom, that woman has blue hair." Likewise, I am so captivated by the political scene before me that I must comment. I would advise the GOP leadership to do as country singer Tammy Wynette said, "Stand by your man." The chances of re-electing a sitting governor are far greater than nominating and electing someone else to carry the GOP standard. Yes, there are other Republicans who could be elected governor next year. But Fletcher will run no matter what some leaders of his party might say. What other choice does he have? So any challenger will have to get by him first. But suppose for a moment that someone successfully challenges Fletcher in next May's primary. It would be a costly and bitter campaign. I cannot dream of the scenario in which a Republican could wrestle the party's nomination from Fletcher and successfully unite the party to the degree that he would win in November. The schism would be too great to win in a state where the numbers still favor the Democrats. Who could this unnamed Republican challenger be? Where could the votes come from for another Republican to defeat Fletcher? The power of the incumbency would be too strong for Fletcher to be unseated by a Republican challenger outside the 5th Congressional District. It would take someone from that district who also has the political presence to scare off other GOP challengers. In a crowded Republican primary, Fletcher will be the nominee. A one-on-one race with an opponent from the 5th District is the only way Fletcher will lose his party's nomination. Translation: U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers of Somerset is the only Republican other than Fletcher who could be elected Kentucky's governor in 2007. Although Rogers would not have to give up his seat to run for governor, Republicans would have to lose control of the U.S. House in November for Rogers to make the move. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the GOP will lose the House in the fall. If that happens, expect rumors about Rogers running for governor to begin in earnest. The other scenario that would put Rogers in the race is for Fletcher to step aside. But that's not happening, and Rogers will not fracture his party and run against the first Republican governor in 30 years. All of this is good news for Fletcher, but whether it's good news for Republicans depends on who the Democrats nominate. This is the biggest missing piece of the puzzle. Are you paying attention, Ben Chandler?